· Overall prosperous situation

In the second quarter of this year, with the demand on shipping increasing, water level of Changjiang rising back and the channel conditions ameliorating, Changjiang shipping enters busy season. The prosperity index of Changjiang shipping was 122.51 and in prosperous status. The confidence index of Changjiang shipping was 130.76 and in good prosperous status. The prosperous situation is better than that of last period and the same period of last year.

· Regional prosperous situation

In the second quarter of this year, the construction of shiplock of Three Gorges Project was finished and the double-line shipping resumed. The Changjiang shipping in upstream area was active. The prosperity index of upstream shipping was 133.74 and in good prosperous status, which was better than the situation of the last period and similar to that of the same period of last year. The prosperity index of midstream shipping was 109.39 and in prosperous status, which was slightly better than that of the last period and the same period of last year. The prosperity index of downstream shipping was 141.59 and in good prosperous status, which was better than that of the last period and the same period of last year.

· Prosperous situation of main shipping types

In the second quarter of this year, the prosperous situation of cargo shipping increased. The prosperity index of cargo shipping was 129.47 and in good prosperous status, which was better than that of the last period and the same period of last year. Among them, the demand on major bulks shipping such as coal and iron ore was stable. The shipping of dry bulk cargo was stable with rising. Its prosperity index was 115.62 and in prosperous status, which was slightly better than that of the last period and the same period of last year. Due to many factors, such as the proportion of crude oil shipping in Changjiang decreasing after the pipelines along the river put into service, the proportion of crude oil shipping in prosperity investigation of liquid bulk cargo shipping increasing after adjustment and the demand on liquid chemical products shipping of many areas increasing, the prosperous situation of liquid bulk cargo shipping in this period increased back to some extent. Its prosperity index was 105.28 and in prosperous status, which was better than that of the last period and the same period of last year. The shipping of foreign trade entered busy season. Its prosperity index was 132.97 and in good prosperous status, which was better than that of the last period and similar to that of the same period of last year. The shipping of containers entered busy season. The prosperity index was 146.47 and in good prosperous status, which was be better than that of last period and similar to that of the same period of last year. Some cargo vehicles choose Yi-Yu waterway instead to enter Sichuan province because the highways in Chongqing area charge fees according to the weight. The vehicle flow in Yu-Yi line increased obviously. The prosperity index of Chuanjiang cargo wheeled shipping was 125.76 and in good prosperous status, which was better than that of last period and the same period of last year.

The prosperity index of passenger shipping was 104.32 and in prosperous status for the passenger shipping of tourists in Changjiang during “May Day” increasing to some extent and the market order turning better, which was better than that of last period and the same period of last year.

· Predicted prosperous status of the third quarter of this year

In the third quarter of this year, the shipping of Changjiang is expected to keep the prosperous status of the second quarter. It is estimated that the prosperity index and confidence index of Changjiang shipping was 121.95 and 129.39 respectively. The Changjiang shipping will keep the tendency of rising.

In the third quarter of this year, it is estimated that the cargo prosperity index will be 120.78 and the cargo shipping will keep relatively good prosperous status. Among them, the prosperity index of dry bulk cargo will be 111.73 and the shipping of dry bulk cargo will be in stable status. It is expected that the prosperity index of liquid bulk cargo will be up to 117.92 and the prosperous status of liquid bulk cargo will increase. The prosperity index of foreign trade shipping will be 109.07 and foreign trade shipping will be in stably prosperous status. The prosperity index of container shipping will be 128.05 and container shipping will be good prosperous status. The prosperity index of cargo wheeled shipping will be 126.83 and cargo wheeled shipping will be still in good prosperous status.

In the third quarter of this year, the passenger shipping of Changjiang tourists will keep stable and its prosperity index will be 101.05.

In the third quarter, the most of main production and operation indexes of shipping enterprises are anticipated to keep the prosperous status of the second quarter.

Prosperous status of Changjiang shipping in the second quarter of 2007

Note: After comparing index point and actual status for several years, the status above 125 points is established as good prosperous status.

1. Changjiang shipping operating generally well

(1) The prosperous status of Changjiang shipping of the second quarter rising

In the second quarter of 2007, 45% of the shipping enterprises operated well. 54% of the shipping enterprises operated as well as that of last period. The prosperity index of Changjiang shipping was 122.51 and in prosperous status, which increased by 5.94 and 7.45 points respectively compared with that of last period and the same period of last year. The prosperous status of Changjiang shipping rose.

(2) The confidence of shipping enterprises to the industrial development being enhanced

In the second quarter of this year, 61% of shipping enterprises thought the industrial development status of Changjiang shipping will be good, while 38% of them thought it will be general. The confidence index of Changjiang shipping was 130.76 and in good prosperous status, which increased by 7.21 and 10.96 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year. The shipping enterprises are optimistic to the development of Changjiang shipping.

The tendency of prosperity index and confidence index of Changjiang shipping is shown in Fig. 1.

 (3) The prosperous status of port and shipping enterprises rising

In the second quarter, 50% of the port enterprises had good production and operation, while 49% of them had equal operating status to that of last period. The prosperity index of port enterprise was 134.20 and in good prosperous status, which increased by 15.27 points compared with that of last period and was equal to that of the same period of last year.

In the second quarter of this year, 41% of shipping enterprises had good production and operation, while 58% of them had equal operating status to that of last period. The prosperity index of shipping enterprise was 127.60 and in good prosperous status, which increased by 13.15 and 16.37 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

(4) The prosperous status rising for upstream area, stabilizing for midstream area and being well for downstream area

From the status of various regions, in the second quarter, the construction of shiplock of Three Gorges Project was finished and the double-line shipping resumed. The upstream shipping came back to the prosperous status before starting construction of shiplock. 47% of upstream shipping enterprises had good production and operation status, while 52% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of upstream area was 133.74 and in good prosperous status, which increased by 35.89 and 20.91 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

21% of midstream shipping enterprises had good production and operation status, while 78% of them had equal status to that of last period. Its prosperity index was 109.74 and in prosperous status, which increased by 2.06 and 2.03 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

58% of downstream shipping enterprises had good production and operation status, while 41% of them had equal status to that of last period. Its prosperity index was 141.59 and in prosperous status, which increased by 17.88 and 22.64 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

(5) The prosperous status of passenger and cargo shipping rising

In terms of cargo shipping, in the second quarter of this year, with the demand on shipping increasing, water level of Changjiang rising back and the channel conditions ameliorating, shipping operation turned normal and shipping production entered busy season. 62% of shipping enterprises had good production and operation status, while 34% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of cargo shipping was 129.47 and in good prosperous status, which increased by 20.04 and 15.38 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

For dry bulk cargo shipping, 35% of the shipping enterprises had better status than that of last period, while 62% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of dry bulk cargo was 115.62 and in prosperous status, which increased by 4.32 and 6.05 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

For liquid bulk cargo shipping, after the pipelines along the river put into service, the proportion in Changjiang crude oil shipping decreased, the proportion of crude oil shipping in prosperity investigation of liquid bulk cargo shipping increased after adjustment and the demand on liquid chemical products shipping of many areas also increased. Therefore, the prosperous situation of liquid bulk cargo shipping increased back to some extent. 11% of the shipping enterprises had better status than that of last period, while 89% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of liquid bulk cargo was 105.28 and in prosperous status, which increased by 19.81 and 12.62 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

For foreign trade shipping, 80% of the shipping enterprises had better status than that of last period, while 5% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of foreign trade shipping was 132.97 and in prosperous status, which increased by 28.94 points compared with that of last period and was equal to that of the same period of last year. For container shipping, 95% of the shipping enterprises had better status than that of last period, while 3% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of container shipping was 146.47 and in good prosperous status, which increased by 41.52 points compared with that of last period and was equal to that of the same period of last year.

For Chuanjiang cargo wheeled shipping, some cargo vehicles choose Yi-Yu waterway instead to enter Sichuan province because the highways in Chongqing area charge fees according to the weight. The vehicle flow increased obviously in Yu-Yi line, increased to some extent in Yi-Fu line and decreased to some extent in Yi-Wan short-distance line. The prosperity index of Chuanjiang cargo wheeled shipping was 125.76 and in good prosperous status, which increased by 16.86 and 37.45 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

In terms of passenger shipping, the passenger shipping of Changjiang tourism during “May Day” increased and the market order was good. 45% of the shipping enterprises had better status, while 19% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of passenger shipping was 104.32 and in prosperous status, which increased 15.68 and 14.35 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

2. The main production and operation indexes of most shipping enterprise being good

In the second quarter of this year, the main observation indexes of shipping enterprises are as following.

For business volume, 60% of shipping enterprises had better status, while 33% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of business volume was 127.21 and in good prosperous status, which increased by 16.06 and 17.53 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

For business income, 60% of shipping enterprises had better status, while 35% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of business income was 128.21 and in good prosperous status, which increased by 19.61 and 17.56 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

For business charge price, 14% of shipping enterprises increased the price, while 76% of them had equal one to that of last period. The prosperity index of business charge price was 102.21 and in prosperous status, which increased by 2.18 and 9.14 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

For operation cost, 44% of shipping enterprises had equal cost to that of last period, while 52% of them had a higher one. The prosperity index of operation cost was 75.57 and in bad prosperous status, which decreased by 23.27 and 2.02 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

For profits (losses), 41% of shipping enterprises had better status, while 47% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of profits (losses) was 115.69 and in prosperous status, which increased by 7.31 and 20.21 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

For net property benefits, 46% of shipping enterprises had better status, while 43% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of net property benefits was 118.46 and in prosperous status, which increased by 27.79 and 15.35 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

Form loan default, 68% of shipping enterprises had equal status to that of last period, while 22% of them had increased loan default. The prosperity index of loan default was 93.34 and in bad prosperous status, which decreased by 8.46 and 2.01 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

For labor demand, 34% of shipping enterprises had better status, while 62% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of labor demand was 115.71 and in prosperous status, which increased by 28.09 and 16.49 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

For ship output, 35% of shipping enterprises had better status, while 57% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of ship output was 113.94 and in prosperous status, which increased by 8.73 and 2.68 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

For berth utilization rate, 76% of shipping enterprises had better status, while 20% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of berth utilization rate was 137.01 and in good prosperous status, which increased by 28.36 compared with that of last period and was equal to that of the same period of last year.

For investment in fixes assets, 52% of shipping enterprises had better status, while 43% of them had equal status to that of last period. The prosperity index of investment in fixes assets was 123.99 and in prosperous status, which increased by 9.88 and 14.40 points compared with that of last period and the same period of last year.

3. The prosperous status of Changjiang shipping in the third quarter of 2007 being expected to keep rising tendency

According to the results of investigation, it is estimated that the prosperous status of Changjiang shipping in the third quarter of 2007 will be 121.95 and in prosperous status. The confidence index will be 129.39 and in good prosperous status. The Changjiang shipping is expected to keep rising tendency.

The estimated prosperity index will be 123.58 for port enterprises and 120.19 for shipping enterprises. Both of them are in prosperous status.

The estimated prosperity index will be 121.51 for upstream shipping, 112.11 for midstream shipping and 127.55 for downstream shipping. The first two are in prosperous status and the last one is in good prosperous status.

It is indicated by the investigation that 45% of the shipping enterprises think that the shipping in the third quarter will increase compared with this period, while 51% of them think the shipping situation will be equal to that of this period. The estimated prosperity index of cargo shipping will be 120.78 and in prosperous status.

For dry bulk cargo shipping in the third quarter of this year, 25% of the shipping enterprises think it will increase compared with this period, while 74% of them think it will be equal. The estimated prosperity index of dry bulk cargo shipping will be 111.73 and in prosperous status. For liquid bulk cargo shipping, 37% of the shipping enterprises think it will increase, while 62% of them think it will be equal. The estimated prosperity index of liquid bulk cargo shipping will be 117.92 and in prosperous status. For foreign trade shipping, 38% of the shipping enterprises think it will increase, while 42% of them think it will be equal. The estimated prosperity index of foreign trade shipping will be 109.07 and in prosperous status. For container shipping, 63% of the shipping enterprises think it will increase, while 29% of them think it will be equal. The estimated prosperity index of container shipping will be 128.05 and in good prosperous status. Due to the charge by highway according to weight and the high temperature, the divers of cargo vehicles for entering Sichuan will still choose waterway in order to reduce cost and labor intensity. It is estimated that in the third quarter, the shipping volume in Yi-Yu line and Yi-Fu line will keep increasing, while that in Yi-Wan line will decrease. The prosperity index of Chuanjiang cargo wheeled shipping will be 126.83 and in good prosperous status.

In the third quarter, 10% of shipping enterprises think that the passenger shipping will increase compared with this period, while 83% of them think it will be equal. The prosperity index of passenger shipping will be 101.05 and in critical status.

It is estimated that most production and operation indexes of shipping enterprises will keep stable prosperous status. Except operation cost and loan default, all the other indexes are expected to be in prosperous status.