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Inflation Control and Price Reform

2007-10-15

The reason is clear. Though interest rate increases again, negative real interest rates of currently due one-year deposits persist. However, after four interest rate increases, the narrowing margin of long-term deposit and loan interests spreads is much higher than that of the short-term. For instance, biannual deposit and loan spreads have narrowed by 27 basis points, while that of five-year have narrowed by 63 basis points. This shows that the central bank continues to take money and credit control as important measures of monetary policy, hoping to slowdown investment growth and curbing growth from being fast to overheating.

As capital cost, real interest rate is effective in regulating supply and demand of credit funds and further regulating investment scale by controlling rate of returns. But for long, low or even negative real interest rate dominates in China, as "high-investment" takes a big share in the Troika of China's Economic Growth (namely, consumption, investment and net export).
From this perspective, adjusting interest rates and rationalizing funds and price systems are necessary measures for macro-control and for China's market economy reform.

However, essential productive factors price reform is delayed again, the latest explication goes: July¡¯s CPI growth is the highest in a decade. Since its reform will boost price hikes, it should wait under CPI growth peak has passed.     

Outwardly, the argument is reasonable; after all, rising prices means higher cost to the public, which makes the low-income people living worse. This reasoning goes, price reform on some essential productive factors stops.
Well, this really can do?

First, when cost of production increases, administrative controls over the price will result in shoddy work or a reduction of supply due to falling average return rate. Both will lead to decline of effective supply, when demand is stable, it will inevitably lead to greater price increase. Once the imbalance breaks out, it will certainly boost CPI growth. In this way, ¡°to wait under CPI growth peak has passed¡± is not worthy.      

Second, since essential productive factors price is not regulated though it should be, the price consistency is resulting from external pressure. The internal imbalance will be released sooner or later, leading possibly to lingering inflation expectations and eventually a growth in CPI.

Third, more importantly, the root of recurring economic overheating lies on disturbance in essential productive factors price. In fact, in a large trade surplus country such as China, the overall supply far exceeds the demand. And overheated economy and prices surge are because essential productive factors prices are seriously distorted. The following are part of the outcome of such distortion: low or even negative real interest rates, cheap labor, underestimated real effective exchange rate, pressed resources and energy prices and extremely low cost for environmental pollution.

Such distortion exaggerates competitiveness of "Made in China" products, stimulates inefficient investment, and result in "the three over" (over fast investment and credit and over-large surplus); On the other hand, it inhibits supply of the coal, electricity, oil and other basic production elements, only to fuel CPI growth in overheated economy.
In conclusion, China's economic imbalances result form distortion of essential productive factors prices, and delay of its market-oriented reform would perhaps cause greater trouble.

 


 
    
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