Changing situation of the main price indexes 

Comparison of CPI and non-food CPI tendency (2003.1- 2007.5)

(1) The growth rate of CPI linked relative ratio increased. The price of meat, poultry, egg and grease was the main strength to boost the growth rate of CPI.

1. The price of meat, poultry, egg and grease pulled CPI up by 2.5 percentage points with a contribution degree of 73.5%. The price of poultry and its products, egg and grease in May increased by 26.5%, 33.4% and 21.4% compared with that of the same period of last year respectively. The growth rate increased by 8.9, 6.2 and 2.8 percentage points respectively compared with those of April. All the three pulled CPI up by 2.5 percentage points with a contribution degree of 73.5%. Among them, the price of pork was the most important factor of CPI increase. Its linked relative ration in May increased by 10.8%, increasing by 42.7% compared with that of the same period of last year. The price of pork pulled the CPI up by 1.2 percentage points with a contribution degree of 36.0%.

2. From the structure, the food price rose fast, while the price growth rate of non-food and service was relatively stable. The fast increase of food price is the main force to boost CPI. The price of food in May increased by 8.3% compared with that of the same period of last year, increasing by 3.3 percentage points compared with that in January. It pulled CPI up by 2.8 percentage points with a contribution degree of 82.4%.

The price of non-food had small and stable growth rate, which had small effect on pulling CPI up. From February, the growth rate of non-food price remained around 1.0% compared with that of the same period of last year. It pulled CPI up by 0.7 percentage points. Among them, the price growth rate of tobacco, wine and their articles, household equipment and service, medical care and health care products and residence didn’t change much compared with that of the same period of last year, remaining about 0.07, 0.13, 0.15 and 0.5 percentage points respectively, which had stable pulling up effect on CPI. The price decreasing rate of entertainment, education and culture products and service was 1.0- 1.2% compared with that of the same period of last year, pulling CPI down by 0.17 percentage points. The price of transportation, communication and clothes decreased slightly compared with that of the same period of last year, which had unapparent pulling effect on CPI.

The price of consumable rose fast, while that of service had stable growth rate compared with that of the same period of last year. If CPI is divided into the price of consumable and price of service, the former in May increased by 3.9% compared with the same period of last year, increasing by 0.9 percentage points compared with that in February and pulling CPI up by about 3.0 percentage points. The growth rate of the latter was relatively stable, which was between 1.7% and 2.0% since February, pulling CPI up by about 0.43 percentage points.

3. From the overall level, the linked relative ratio of CPI rose fast and the growth rate increased obviously compared with that of the same period of last year, while the non-food CPI didn’t change much. The linked relative ratio of CPI in March, April and May was -0.3%, -0.1% and 0.3% respectively. It was 0.5%, 0.1% and 0.6% respectively after adjustment considering the seasonal factors, which increased by 0.3, 0.0 and 0.5 percentage points compared with the average value of linked relative ratio of the same period between 2001 and 2006 after adjustment. The annual linked relative ratio was 6.1%, 1.3% and 7.1% respectively. The linked relative ratio of food price in March, April and May was -0.4%, -0.6% and 0.6% respectively. It was 1.2%, 0.1% and 1.4% respectively after adjustment considering the seasonal factors, which rose greatly. The linked relative ratio of non-food price in March, April and May was -0.30%, -0.24% and 0.10% respectively. It was 0.13%, 0.13% and 0.10% respectively after adjustment considering the seasonal factors, which was relatively stable.

From the comparison with the same period of last year, the monthly growth rate of Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased obviously. For example, it increased by 3.4% in May, increasing by 1.2 percentage points compared with that in January and 2.0 percentage points compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate of non-food CPI was relatively stable, between 0.5% and 0.7%.

From January to May, the accumulated increase of CPI was 2.9% compared with that of the same period of last year. Among them, the food price increased by 6.8%, the non-food price increased by 1.0%, the price of consumable increased by 3.3% and the price of service increased by 1.6%.

The tendency of CPI linked relative ratio (2005.1- 2007.5)

(2) The growth rate of PPI (Producer Price Index) fell back slightly compared with that of the same period of last year.

1. The growth rate of purchasing price of raw materials, fuels and power fell back slightly. The price of ferrous metal rose fast. The purchasing price of raw materials, fuels and power in May increased by 3.6% compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate fell back by 0.1 percentage points compared with the average value of that in March and April but 1.9 percentage points compared with that of the same period of last year. For different classifications, the growth rate of purchasing price of ferrous metal increased obviously compared with that of the same period of last year, which increased by 4.3% in May. The growth rate increased by 3.9 percentage points compared with that in January and 7.9 percentage points compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate of purchasing price of nonferrous metal fell back, which increased by 11.1% in May compare with that of the same period of last year and fell 16.3 percentage points back compared with that in January. The growth rate of fuel and power price increased slightly, which increased by 2.5% in May compared with that of the same period of last year and 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points respectively compared with that in March and April but decreased by 9.3 percentage points compared with the same period of last year.

2. The growth rate of factory price of industrial products fell back compared with that of the same period of last year. Affected by the relatively high base price of the same period of last year, the growth rate of factory price of industrial products fell back. In May, the factory price of industrial products increased by 2.8% compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points compared with that in January but increased by 0.4 percentage points compared with that of the same period of last year. For different classifications, the growth rate of factory price of production goods fell back compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate increased by 2.9% in May, decreasing by 0.9 and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared with that in January and that of the same period of last year. Among them, the price of mining products turned up, increasing slightly by 0.3% compared with that of the same period of last year and decreasing by 4.4 and 12.6 percentage points respectively compared with that in January and that of the same period of last year. The growth rate of price of raw materials was stable, which increased by 5.7% in May compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate of price of processing products was also stable, which increased by 1.8% in May compared with that of the same period of last year. The food price brought the price of production goods to increase greatly. The factory price of production goods in May increased by 2.4% compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate increased by 0.6 and 2.8 percentage points respectively compared with that in January and that of the same period last year. Among them, food price rose fast increasing by 6.3% compared with that of the same period of last year, which increased by 1.5 and 7.1 percentage points respectively compared with that in January and that of the same period last year. The price increased by 1.3% for clothes and 1.2% for ordinary daily necessities. The price of durable consumable decreased by 1.3%, reducing by 0.8 percentage points compared with that of the same period of last year.

From January to May, the accumulated increase of factory price of industrial products was 2.9% compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year. The accumulated increase of production goods price was 3.1%, while the increase of its price was 1.3%.

Tendency of the main property price 

The growth rate of accumulated starting, constructing and finishing areas of commercial housing compared with that of the same period of last year in the nationwide (2001.2- 2007.4)

(1)   The growth rate of house price expanded compared with that of the same period of last year as well as its linked relative ratio. The growth rate of house renting increased compared with that of the same period of last year. And the growth rate of land trade price was relatively great.

1. The linked relative ratio of house price kept rising. Both the linked relative ratio of second-hand house price and the price compared with that of the same period of last year are higher than that of new ones. From the total price level, the linked relative ratio of house sales price and its price compared with that of the same period of last year reach the highest point instead of stable tendency since the readjustment and control in 2006. In May of 2007, the house sales price in 70 large and medium scale cities in the nationwide increased by 6.4% compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate is 1.0 percentage points higher than that of last year. The linked relative ratio increased by 1.0% and the growth rate is 0.3 percentage points higher than that of last month.

① Both the linked relative ratio of second-hand house price and the price compared with that of the same period of last year are higher than that of new ones. The price of second-hand house remained the rising tendency since February of 2007. In this May, the price of second-hand house increased by 6.8% compared with that of the same period of last year, which was the largest growth rate since 2006. Its linked relative ratio increased by 1.3%, which was the second high record since 2006. The growth rate of newly-built commercial house price rose obviously. In this May, the price of newly-built commercial house increased by 6.6% compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate was 1.3 percentage points higher than that of last month, but still 0.4 percentage points lower than the culmination value of August, 2006. Its linked relative ratio kept rising for three months in succession. It increased by 0.8% in May, which was equal to the highest record since 2006.

② The house price in Beihai, Shenzhen and Beijing ranked in the first several places continuously. From different areas, the house price of all the main cities is increasing compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate of house price in hot cities was still great. In May of 2007, the sales price of newly-built commercial house in 70 large and medium scale cities all increased compared with that of the same period of last year. Among the top ten cities in April with the highest growth rate compared with that of the same period of last year, seven of them still ranked in the top ten. For example, Beihai, Shenzhen and Beijing ranked in the first several places continuously. In May of 2007, the cities with relatively large growth rate are Beihai (15.1%), Shenzhen (12.3%), Wenzhou (10.9%), Beijing (10.3%), Bengbu (10.2%) and Nanjing (9.2%).

2. The growth rate of house renting price increased compared with that of the same period of last year. In the first quarter of 2007, the house renting price in 70 large and medium scale cities in the nationwide increased by 1.8% compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate increased by 0.4 percentage points compared with that of the fourth quarter of 2006. Its growth rate is lower than that of the house sales price of the same period. In the first quarter, the growth rate of house renting price for housing and commercial entertainment increased slightly 0.1 and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared with that of last quarter, which was the highest level in recent years. It is indicated that the demand for housing was enormous and the commerce was relatively active. The growth rate of renting price for office building increased by 1.3 percentage points compared with that of the fourth quarter of last year, which was in the relatively low position in recent years. The growth rate of renting price for industry and storage house vibrated continuously, reducing by 1 percentage point compared with that of the fourth quarter of last year.

3. The growth rate of land trade price was relatively great. The price of land for commerce, tourism and entertainment increased obviously. The growth rate of land trade price kept rising since reaching the bottom in the third quarter of 2006. It increased by 9.8% in the first quarter of 2007 compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate increased by 3.7 percentage points compared with that of the fourth quarter of 2006. The land trade price for commerce, tourism and entertainment increased greatly. The growth rate of the first quarter of this year, which was 20.9%, was the highest point since 2002. It is reflected that the industries such as commerce, tourism and entertainment are active. The land trade price for housing and industrial storage kept rising tendency, increasing by 8.9 and 5.7 percentage points respectively.

(2) The stock price presents vibration in high position and the trading volume expanded.

Since 2006, Shanghai Stock Index rose greatly and created historical new record on May 29th, 2007, closing at 4334.92 points. After the stamp duty was adjusted at the beginning of June, the stock index dropped to 3670.4 points. However, it broke 4000 points again on June 12th. On June 21st, Shanghai Stock Index closed at 4230.82 points, increasing by 1515.10 points compared with that of the beginning of this year with a growth rate of 55.79%. The trading volume kept expanding. Since 2007, the daily average trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange was up to 136,023 million RMB, which was 4.6 times of that in 2006.

By the end of May, 2007, the number of accounts in Shanghai Stock Exchange has been up to 52,706,800, increasing by 11,692,100 compared with that of the beginning of this year. Among them, the number of individual accounts was 46,656,900, increasing by 7,869,300 compared with that of the beginning of this year.

(3) The index of the national debt decreased gradually. The yield of medium and long-term bond increased.

From July of 2006 to the beginning of 2007, affected by various factors such as strong increase of Chinese economy, sufficient circulation of the market and American interest increasing to expectation, the market of bond became strong gradually. Shanghai Bond Index reached the historical culmination on March 13, 2007, closing at 111.95 points. Since the second quarter of this year, the effect of earlier a series of tight monetary policies appeared gradually. The expectation of interest increasing became stronger and stronger. Shanghai Bond Index began to fall slowly and closed at 109.92 points on June 15, 2007.

Since the end of 2006, the bond yield curve moved up totally. Among them, the yield growth rate of long-term and medium-term bond was greater than that of short-term bond. It is indicated that the capital level increased overall especially the long-term and medium-term capitals. On June 15th, 2007, the yield of medium-term national debt 010501 (period before repayment is 7.8 years) was 4.15%, increasing by 112 basic points compared with that in the beginning of 2007. The yield of long-term national debt 010303 (period before repayment is 15.9 years) was 4.25%, increasing by 69 basic points compared with that in the beginning of 2007.

Basic statement of international price level

(1) The price growth rate of import increased, while that of export fell back. The trade conditions turned aggravating.

Since the second half of 2006, the price level of import and export in China appeared rising tendency. The import price increased faster, while the growth rate of export price fell back. The import price in April and May of 2007 increased by 7.3% and 6.3% compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate increased by 2.6 and 1.6 percentage points compared with that in March of 2007. The export price increased by 6.4% and 3.1% compared with that of the same period of last year. The growth rate fell back in May, decreasing by 2.8 and 3.3 percentage points compared with that of March and April.

The Chinese trading conditions turned aggravating. The vibration between months was great. The terms of trade index in April and May of 2007 was 99.2 and 97.0 respectively, reducing by 2.0 and 4.2 percentage points compared with that of March. From the product structure, the trade conditions of industrial products are better than those of primary products. In April of 2007, the terms of trade index for primary products was 93.4, while that for industrial products was 104.1.

(2) The international crude oil price rose concussively.

Affected by geopolitics, accidents and speculation, the international crude oil price vibrated greatly since 2007. In January, the international crude oil price fell to the bottom and began to rally. It broke 65 dollars per barrel once again in March and kept rising concussively. On June 19th, 2007, the WTI crude oil less forward price closed at 69.10 dollars per barrel, up to the highest point since 2007.

(3) The international price of nonferrous metal still remained high but fell back slightly. The Baltic Dry Index fell back to some extent after continuously rising.

1. The international copper price rose back to some extent after falling. The price of aluminum, nickel and zinc fell back after rushing up. The price of lead and tin rose continuously. Especially the price of lead rose up all the way and created historical new record of 2477 dollars per ton on May 20th. The price of tin also created historical new record in April and May, which is still in the high position of 14000 dollars per ton at present. The copper price reached high position of 8400 dollars per ton in May, which fell slightly and then rose up again. At present, the copper price is about 7600 dollars per ton. The aluminum price fell back after reaching high position of 2900 dollars per ton in the beginning of May. Its present price is about 2700 dollars per ton. The nickel price reached high position of 54100 dollars per ton in the end of May and fell back to 38000 dollars per ton at present. The zinc price broke 4000 dollars per ton again in this May after creating historical new record in the end of 2006 and fell back to 3600 dollars per ton at present.

2. The Baltic Dry Index fell back to some extent after continuously rising. In recent years, the ocean transportation volume of staple products such as petroleum and iron ore increased sharply. The international freight also continued to rise. BDI (Baltic Dry Index, reflecting the situation of international shipping market) created historical new record of 6688 points on May 15th, 2007. And then, it fell back and closed at 5672 points on June 21st.